Why early voting trends can’t tell you who will win the election


Related video above: Early voting takes place in Fenway Park You have seen pictures of early voting lines outside the door. You may have read the statistics of the high number of voters applying for absentee tickets. But be careful when trying to translate early and absentee voting statistics into trying to understand whether President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden will win the presidential race. We know from opinion polls that a record number of people are likely to vote. The same opinion polls suggest that there will be a huge difference between the percentages of Biden and Trump supporters who vote early. Biden supporters are likely to vote prematurely. In an ABC News / Washington Post survey conducted late last month, Biden was 36 points ahead of Trump among those who voted before election day, while Trump was 19 points among those who said he would vote on election day. However, it is difficult to know to what extent early voting will be more democratic than the overall result. There is no history of early voting during a pandemic. Just because we know that the party affiliation of voters returning ballots in some states does not mean that we know who they are voting for. In 2016, the year the partisan was divided between early voters and voters was much smaller, and Hillary Clinton won voters who cast their ballots before Election Day in two key battlefields: Florida and North Carolina. However, it was Trump who overwhelmingly won with voters on election day and executed both states. A similar situation could develop in Florida this year. Many more Democrats vote in Florida earlier than Republicans, while Republicans seem to want to wait in Sunshine State. A ABC News / Washington Post poll in late September shows Biden’s victory by a large margin is fully in line with the scenario in which Trump wins the state. Trump scored an overall 51% on Biden’s 47%, although Trump lost 28 points among Florida’s early probable voters. How is it possible? Trump led among those who said they would vote by 56 points on election day. None of this means that early voting statistics would be useless. They tell us that the vote seems to be on the right track. They elect far more people than ever before, and they tend to be Democrats.

Related video above: Early voting takes place in Fenway Park

You saw pictures of early election lines out the door. You may have read the statistics of the high number of voters applying for absentee tickets.

But be careful when trying to translate early and absentee voting statistics into an attempt to understand whether President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden will win the presidential race.

We know from opinion polls that a record number of people are likely to vote before election year this year.

The same opinion polls suggest that there will be a big difference between the percentage of Biden and Trump supporters who vote earlier. Biden supporters are likely to vote prematurely.

In an ABC News / Washington Post poll late last month, Biden was 36 points ahead of Trump among those who voted before election day, while Trump was 19 points among those who said they would vote on election day.

However, it is difficult to know to what extent early voting will be more democratic than the overall result. There is no history of early voting during a pandemic. Moreover, because we know that the party affiliation of voters returning ballots in some states does not mean that we know who they are voting for.

In 2016, a year when the guerrilla divide between early voters and voters on Election Day was much smaller, Hillary Clinton won voters who cast their ballots before Election Day in two key battlefields: Florida and North Carolina.

However, it was Trump who overwhelmingly won the electorate on election day and executed both states.

A similar situation could develop in Florida this year. Many more Democrats vote in Florida before Republicans, while Republicans seem to want to wait in Sunshine State.

A ABC News / Washington Post poll in late September shows Biden’s victory by a large margin is fully in line with the scenario in which Trump wins the state. Trump gained a total of 51% in the poll on Biden’s 47%, despite the fact that Trump lost 28 points among Florida’s early probable voters.

How is it possible? Trump led among those who said they would vote by 56 points on election day.

None of this means that early voting statistics are useless. They tell us that the vote seems to be on the right track. They elect far more people than ever before, and they tend to be Democrats.


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